Deep snow and thick ice could mean a dramatic break-up on the rivers this year.
Karl Edwards is an Emergency Management Specialist with the state, but is better known on the YK Delta as the River Watch man. He says that a lot depends on what happens when the weather warms up in April.
The first major piece of information he looks at is the snowpack report from the National Weather Service, which usually comes out in the first part of the month.
"Then, based on that report, we start looking at who's most susceptible. What conditions are coming up that might cause a bad hydraulic breakup or maybe a nice quiet thermal breakup or a mush-out."
The National Weather Service has not said what kind of year we've had, but on the lower Kuskokwim long-time residents say it looks like a normal winter so far. There is good snowpack and some nice ice.
Karl Edwards helps organize the spring River Watch program, which sends planes up and down both the Kuskokwim and the Yukon Rivers to check out potential trouble spots during breakup. They know the danger signs.
"One of the main drivers is the weather in April. So if the weather is cold and heats up real fast at the end of the month, that causes a lot of issues. Whereas if it's just a nice gentle warm up, things have a chance to melt slowly and not make a mess."
Every spring, those living on the river watch the ice. Big spring floods caused by jumbled ice and ice dams can destroy homes and livelihoods. Edwards says that the River Watch program is all about warning people in time to protect themselves and their belongings